2,788 abandoned of 8,200 started carts.
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FUNNEL / SEQUENCE / MARGIN / BREAK-EVENRecover the cart.
Recover the cart.
Keep the margin.
Model a suppression-aware recovery sequence, then separate gross sales from discount, product, processing, fulfillment, and program costs.
- Sequential recovery math
- Contribution ledger
- Low / base / high cases
NET CONTRIBUTION$4,905.253.6% of modeled collected recovery revenue
POSITIVE RECOVERY CASE
The sequence clears its declared cost structure.
Abandoned carts are an opportunity population, not guaranteed lost revenue. The model applies reachability, delivery, sequential recovery, and a complete declared cost ledger before reporting contribution.
Modeled recovered orders86.2+28.2 versus the declared current recovered-order count.
75.0% of abandoned carts enter the sequence.
4.12% of contactable carts in the base case.
$1,016.7 modeled discount cost removed.
Contribution ledger
Base recovery scenarioGross recovered sales$10.2KRecovered orders × AOV
Collected after discount$9,149.9Discount: −$1,016.7
Product + order costs−$3,787.3COGS, processing, and incremental fulfillment
Net contribution$4,905.21,072% contribution / program spend
Recovered orders retain positive contribution after declared costs.
$62.24 / orderRecovered sales are not incremental profit by default. The model subtracts the declared discount, product, processing, fulfillment, messaging, and fixed-program costs.
Recovery scenarios
Same funnel and economics; step-rate multipliers varyLow case60.5 orders$6,428.5 collected · $3,310.2 contribution
Base case86.2 orders$9,149.9 collected · $4,905.2 contribution
High case111.6 orders$11.9K collected · $6,488.4 contribution
Break-even recovery8 orders0.38% of contactable carts
Low and high cases scale every declared step rate. They are sensitivity scenarios, not confidence intervals or forecasts. Comparable holdouts are needed to estimate incremental causal lift.
Base sequence ledger
Recovered carts leave later send audiencesStepDelayAttemptedDeliveredRecoveredCumulative
Helpful reminder1.0h2,0912,02848.748.7
Proof and reassurance20.0h2,0421,98123.872.5
Final reminder48.0h2,0191,95813.786.2
2,005 contactable carts remain unrecovered after the modeled sequence. This is not automatically recoverable revenue; intent, inventory, price, trust, payment, and timing still matter.
Model checks and decisions
6 findingsThe funnel and cost basis are usable. The model uses 8,200 cart starts, 5,412 completed orders, and a 30-day window.
Abandonment is within the declared house review line. Still segment by device, source, geography, product, payment method, new versus returning, and checkout error.
Not every abandoned cart is contactable. The sequence begins with 2,091 of 2,788 abandoned carts. Consent, identity capture, suppression, and channel eligibility determine the actual population.
The base case produces positive contribution. Modeled contribution is $4,905.17 with 53.6% contribution margin on collected recovery revenue.
Recovered-order unit economics are positive before program cost. Each modeled recovered order contributes $62.24 toward messaging and fixed program cost.
Modeled recovery is not incremental causal lift. Base recovered orders are +28.2 versus the declared current count. Seasonality, demand, other channels, natural return, and measurement changes can create the difference.
EXPORT THE ECONOMICS
Keep the funnel, sequence, costs, and scenario boundaries together.
A headline “recovered revenue” number hides discounting and margin. The handoff preserves every input, step-level suppression assumption, and break-even calculation.
Read the full agent guideTHE RECOVERY CONTRACT
An abandoned cart is an opportunity state, not booked revenue.
The model begins with carts that did not complete, narrows to contactable carts, applies delivery and step-specific recovery, suppresses recovered carts from later steps, and only then calculates sales and contribution.
Use a randomized or well-designed comparable holdout to estimate causal incremental recovery. The calculator is a planning and sensitivity model.
- 01Reconcile
Use cart starts and completed orders from one scope, identity rule, and reporting window.
- 02Reach
Separate contactable carts from the full abandoned population and model actual delivery.
- 03Sequence
Apply incremental step rates only to eligible carts that remain unrecovered.
- 04Cost
Subtract discounts, COGS, processing, fulfillment, messaging, and fixed program work.
- 05Prove
Measure incremental orders with a comparable holdout and monitor complaints and unsubscribes.
RECOVERY QUESTIONS
What makes a cart-recovery estimate defensible?
A reconciled funnel, reachable-population definition, suppression-aware sequence, complete cost ledger, sensitivity range, and incremental test design.
How is cart abandonment rate calculated?+
Abandoned carts equal started carts minus completed orders. Abandonment rate divides abandoned carts by started carts, using the same window and identity definition.
Is abandoned cart value lost revenue?+
No. Multiplying abandoned carts by AOV describes gross opportunity value, not revenue that would otherwise certainly occur. Purchase intent and recoverability vary.
How does the sequence avoid double-counting orders?+
Each step models recovery only among contactable carts that remain unrecovered. Modeled recovered carts are removed before calculating the next step's attempted audience.
Should discounts count as a recovery cost?+
Yes. The model reduces collected revenue by the declared discount and still applies product cost to the undiscounted merchandise value.
Does modeled uplift prove the emails caused more orders?+
No. Comparing modeled recovered orders with a current count is descriptive. Use a randomized or defensible comparable holdout to estimate incremental causal lift.
What should be monitored besides revenue?+
Track contribution, conversion by step, opt-outs, complaints, delivery, customer-service contacts, discount dependency, full-price conversion, and whether recovered customers retain or return.